UPS vs WMT: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of United Parcel Service, Inc. and Walmart Inc. — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-09-19.
United Parcel Service, Inc. · Industrials
$99.02
+21.1% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade B
VS
Walmart Inc. · Consumer Defensive
$106.73
-10.8% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade C
High Quality
QuantHub Verdict
UPS has more upside to fair value
(+21.1%).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
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Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
UPS |
WMT |
| Current Price |
$99.02 |
$106.73 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$119.92 |
$95.24 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
+21.1%
|
-10.8%
|
| Market Cap |
$84.1B |
$849.4B |
| Forward P/E |
—
|
—
|
| EV / EBITDA |
10.2x
|
21.3x
|
| Price / Sales |
0.9x
|
1.1x
|
| Price / FCF |
15.3x
|
62.8x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+7.6%
|
+5.9%
|
| Gross Margin |
16.6%
|
25.2%
|
| Operating Margin |
7.3%
|
4.4%
|
| Return on Equity |
29.1%
|
22.7%
|
| Dividend Yield |
6.62% |
0.92% |
| FCF Yield |
6.52%
|
1.59%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Hold
|
Strong Buy
|
Investment Thesis
United Parcel Service is the world's largest integrated package delivery and logistics network, operating U.S. Domestic Package and International Package segments with roughly 460,000 employees and a 119-year operating history. The business quality is medium: the global air-and-ground network, brand, and scale are genuine assets, but the company is exposed to commoditized freight, Amazon volume c…
Walmart Inc. is the world's largest retailer by revenue, operating more than 10,000 stores and clubs across Walmart U.S., Walmart International, and Sam's Club, with a fast-growing e-commerce and advertising ecosystem layered on top of a grocery-led, everyday-low-price model. The business quality is high: scale and sourcing power underpin a durable cost advantage, ROE is 22.7%, and revenue grew 5…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
UPS |
WMT |
| Zone Low |
$89.94 |
$71.43 |
| Zone High |
$101.93 |
$80.95 |
| In Buy Zone? |
Yes
|
No
|