NVDA Research Update — September 20, 2026 (Updated)
Updated Thesis
NVIDIA designs the accelerated computing platforms at the center of the AI buildout, spanning data center GPUs, Mellanox networking, AI enterprise software, gaming GeForce GPUs, professional visualization, and automotive platforms, with 42,000 employees and a $5.45 trillion market capitalization. Business quality is exceptional on the fundamentals: TTM gross margin of 74.7%, TTM operating margin of 65.2%, TTM net margin of 63.7%, and ROE of 110.1%, with revenue up 105.9% and earnings up 125.9% in the most recent quarter on a year-over-year basis. The shares change hands at 17.99 times sales, 28.23 times trailing earnings, 42.87 times free cash flow, and 23.4 times EV/EBITDA, a historical-multiple regime the data labels fair, yet the blended fair value estimate of $326.35 implies 45.0% upside from the $225.07 price and the analyst consensus target of $348.88 implies 55.0% upside, so the stock is undervalued versus blended fair value rather than fairly valued.
The investment grade as of this refresh is B — solid business quality. A-tier business, B-tier valuation with 45.0% upside to $326.35 blended fair value.
Grade Change
In this research cycle, the investment grade for NVIDIA Corporation moved from A to B. A-tier business, B-tier valuation with 45.0% upside to $326.35 blended fair value.
Key Metrics at a Glance
- Revenue growth: +105.9% year over year
- Net margin: 63.7%
- Fair value upside: +45.0% to our estimate of $326
Current price: $225.07
These figures reflect our most recent data pull and are one input into a multi-factor valuation framework.
Our 12–18 Month Outlook
Quality companies held over a multi-year horizon benefit from compounding fundamentals and the patience to ride through short-term volatility. NVIDIA Corporation remains in our covered universe with a solid-quality assessment. We update research when material data changes — earnings revisions, management shifts, or regime changes in valuation — not on every price fluctuation.
Long-term accumulation of quality businesses at fair or better prices is the core of the Patient Accumulator approach. Research updates like this one inform whether to add, hold, or wait for a better zone — not whether to react to short-term price moves.
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