MAR Research Update — August 28, 2026

Updated Thesis

Marriott International is a global asset-light lodging franchisor, manager and loyalty-platform operator whose brand portfolio, distribution capabilities and Marriott Bonvoy ecosystem support high-margin recurring fee economics across more than 10,000 properties, nearly 1.814 million rooms and 148 countries and territories. Business momentum remains constructive, with Q2 2026 revenue up 4.8% year over year, gross fee revenue up 12.7%, adjusted EBITDA up 12.5%, worldwide constant-dollar RevPAR up 3.4% and net rooms up 4.5%, although international RevPAR declined 0.5%. The investment case is constrained by valuation and leverage: MAR trades at 36.73x trailing earnings, 30.34x free cash flow and 23.24x EV/EBITDA, is classified as expensive versus its five-year history, and offers only 1.1% upside to a $357.83 fair value estimate despite a $374.33 average analyst target.

The investment grade as of this refresh is C — average business quality. Medium-tier business, expensive-tier valuation, with only 1.1% upside to $357.83 fair value.

Key Metrics at a Glance

Current price: $353.87

These figures reflect our most recent data pull and are one input into a multi-factor valuation framework.

Our 12–18 Month Outlook

Quality companies held over a multi-year horizon benefit from compounding fundamentals and the patience to ride through short-term volatility. Marriott International, Inc. remains in our covered universe with a average-quality assessment. We update research when material data changes — earnings revisions, management shifts, or regime changes in valuation — not on every price fluctuation.

Long-term accumulation of quality businesses at fair or better prices is the core of the Patient Accumulator approach. Research updates like this one inform whether to add, hold, or wait for a better zone — not whether to react to short-term price moves.

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