LLY Research Update — September 14, 2026 (Updated)
Updated Thesis
Eli Lilly is a global pharmaceutical company whose incretin franchise, led by Mounjaro and Zepbound, has become the dominant growth engine in diabetes and obesity care. The business quality is high: TTM gross margin is 83.4%, TTM operating margin is 49.7%, TTM net margin is 33.5%, and ROE is 92.6%, while revenue grew 47.7% and earnings grew 25.3% in the most recent quarter on a year-over-year basis. The stock trades at $1183.72 against a blended fair value estimate of $1208.00, implying only 2.1% upside, with a P/S of 13.99, trailing P/E of 39.55, P/FCF of 52.68, and EV/EBITDA of 26.8.
The investment grade as of this refresh is B — solid business quality. A-tier business, B-tier valuation with 2.1% upside to $1208 fair value.
Grade Change
In this research cycle, the investment grade for Eli Lilly and Company moved from C to B. A-tier business, B-tier valuation with 2.1% upside to $1208 fair value.
Key Metrics at a Glance
- Revenue growth: +47.7% year over year
- Net margin: 33.5%
- Fair value upside: +2.1% to our estimate of $1208
Current price: $1183.72
These figures reflect our most recent data pull and are one input into a multi-factor valuation framework.
Our 12–18 Month Outlook
Quality companies held over a multi-year horizon benefit from compounding fundamentals and the patience to ride through short-term volatility. Eli Lilly and Company remains in our covered universe with a solid-quality assessment. We update research when material data changes — earnings revisions, management shifts, or regime changes in valuation — not on every price fluctuation.
Long-term accumulation of quality businesses at fair or better prices is the core of the Patient Accumulator approach. Research updates like this one inform whether to add, hold, or wait for a better zone — not whether to react to short-term price moves.
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