VST vs XOM: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of Vistra Corp. and Exxon Mobil Corporation — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-09-19.
Vistra Corp. · Utilities
$140.67
-23.0% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade C
VS
Exxon Mobil Corporation · Energy
$163.18
+10.3% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade B
High Quality
QuantHub Verdict
XOM has more upside to fair value
(+10.3%).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
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Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
VST |
XOM |
| Current Price |
$140.67 |
$163.18 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$108.27 |
$179.98 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
-23.0%
|
+10.3%
|
| Market Cap |
$47.4B |
$676.3B |
| Forward P/E |
—
|
—
|
| EV / EBITDA |
10.3x
|
9.9x
|
| Price / Sales |
3.0x
|
1.9x
|
| Price / FCF |
34.7x
|
22.3x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
-5.5%
|
+44.1%
|
| Gross Margin |
13.0%
|
25.1%
|
| Operating Margin |
2.3%
|
10.7%
|
| Return on Equity |
41.5%
|
12.7%
|
| Dividend Yield |
0.65% |
2.52% |
| FCF Yield |
2.88%
|
4.49%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Strong Buy
|
Hold
|
Investment Thesis
Vistra Corp. is a vertically integrated independent power producer and retail electricity supplier operating roughly 38,700 megawatts of generation across natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery storage, serving about 4.3 million retail customers in 20 states and the District of Columbia. The business quality is mixed: the diversified PJM and ERCOT fleet plus retail load is a genuine struc…
Exxon Mobil is the largest integrated oil and gas major in the United States, operating across Upstream exploration and production, Downstream refining and fuels marketing, and Chemical manufacturing, with roughly 57,900 employees and a portfolio that spans conventional crude and natural gas, LNG, petrochemicals, and early-stage carbon capture, hydrogen, and biofuels ventures. The business qualit…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
VST |
XOM |
| Zone Low |
$81.20 |
$134.98 |
| Zone High |
$92.03 |
$152.98 |
| In Buy Zone? |
No
|
No
|