VST vs XOM: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of Vistra Corp. and Exxon Mobil Corporation — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-08-06.
Vistra Corp. · Utilities
$140.58
+20.9% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade B
VS
Exxon Mobil Corporation · Energy
$137.81
-45.0% upside to fair value
Grade C
QuantHub Verdict
VST has more upside to fair value
(+20.9%).
VST trades at a lower forward P/E
(15.4x).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
See all research →
Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
VST |
XOM |
| Current Price |
$140.58 |
$137.81 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$170.00 |
$75.80 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
+20.9%
|
-45.0%
|
| Market Cap |
$47.4B |
$571.2B |
| Forward P/E |
15.4x
|
22.8x
|
| EV / EBITDA |
9.3x
|
10.1x
|
| Price / Sales |
2.9x
|
1.8x
|
| Price / FCF |
42.5x
|
30.4x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+20.0%
|
+2.6%
|
| Gross Margin |
12.7%
|
25.5%
|
| Operating Margin |
2.1%
|
9.0%
|
| Return on Equity |
35.0%
|
9.8%
|
| Dividend Yield |
0.65% |
0% |
| FCF Yield |
2.4%
|
3.29%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Strong Buy
|
Buy
|
Investment Thesis
Vistra is an integrated merchant power producer and retail electricity supplier with roughly 38,700 MW of generation across natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar and battery storage, plus a roughly 4.3 million customer retail book (TXU and affiliated brands) across 20 states. The 2024 Energy Harbor deal made it the second-largest nuclear operator in the US, and that nuclear and gas fleet is now centr…
Exxon Mobil Corporation is a leading integrated oil and gas company with a durable competitive moat based on its scale, integration, advantaged long-life resources, proprietary technology, and irreplaceable infrastructure. The company is led by a long-tenured management team with a strong capital allocation track record focused on dividends and buybacks. Despite these strengths, Exxon is currentl…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
VST |
XOM |
| Zone Low |
$128.00 |
$56.85 |
| Zone High |
$145.00 |
$64.43 |
| In Buy Zone? |
Yes
|
No
|