UPS vs XOM: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of United Parcel Service, Inc. and Exxon Mobil Corporation — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-05-01.
United Parcel Service, Inc. · Industrials
$101.69
+21.2% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade B-
VS
Exxon Mobil Corporation · Energy
$154.46
-40.5% upside to fair value
Grade C
QuantHub Verdict
UPS has more upside to fair value
(+21.2%).
UPS trades at a lower forward P/E
(15.1x).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
See all research →
Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
UPS |
XOM |
| Current Price |
$101.69 |
$154.46 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$123.28 |
$91.87 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
+21.2%
|
-40.5%
|
| Market Cap |
$86.4B |
$642.0B |
| Forward P/E |
15.1x
|
23.2x
|
| EV / EBITDA |
9.1x
|
10.3x
|
| Price / Sales |
0.9x
|
2.0x
|
| Price / FCF |
17.7x
|
27.2x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
-2.5%
|
-1.3%
|
| Gross Margin |
18.5%
|
21.7%
|
| Operating Margin |
9.56%
|
10.5%
|
| Return on Equity |
34.3%
|
11.0%
|
| Dividend Yield |
6.41% |
0% |
| FCF Yield |
5.66%
|
3.68%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Hold
|
Buy
|
Investment Thesis
UPS is the world's largest integrated logistics network with 241,250 employees, operations in 200-plus countries, and 20.8 million packages per day, now in the decisive phase of its most consequential restructuring in 118 years. By deliberately cutting Amazon volume by more than 50 percent (Amazon was 10.6 percent of 2025 revenue), closing 22 to 24 facilities, and eliminating 30,000 positions, ma…
Exxon Mobil Corporation operates as a global integrated oil and gas company with significant operations in upstream, energy products, chemical products, and specialty products segments. The company benefits from a highly experienced management team with decades of internal tenure, led by CEO Darren Woods. Despite strong cash flow generation and operational scale, Exxon is currently overvalued, tr…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
UPS |
XOM |
| Zone Low |
$92.46 |
$68.90 |
| Zone High |
$104.79 |
$78.09 |
| In Buy Zone? |
Yes
|
No
|