UPS vs XOM: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of United Parcel Service, Inc. and Exxon Mobil Corporation — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-09-19.
United Parcel Service, Inc. · Industrials
$99.02
+21.1% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade B
VS
Exxon Mobil Corporation · Energy
$163.18
+10.3% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade B
High Quality
QuantHub Verdict
UPS has more upside to fair value
(+21.1%).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
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Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
UPS |
XOM |
| Current Price |
$99.02 |
$163.18 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$119.92 |
$179.98 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
+21.1%
|
+10.3%
|
| Market Cap |
$84.1B |
$676.3B |
| Forward P/E |
—
|
—
|
| EV / EBITDA |
10.2x
|
9.9x
|
| Price / Sales |
0.9x
|
1.9x
|
| Price / FCF |
15.3x
|
22.3x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+7.6%
|
+44.1%
|
| Gross Margin |
16.6%
|
25.1%
|
| Operating Margin |
7.3%
|
10.7%
|
| Return on Equity |
29.1%
|
12.7%
|
| Dividend Yield |
6.62% |
2.52% |
| FCF Yield |
6.52%
|
4.49%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Hold
|
Hold
|
Investment Thesis
United Parcel Service is the world's largest integrated package delivery and logistics network, operating U.S. Domestic Package and International Package segments with roughly 460,000 employees and a 119-year operating history. The business quality is medium: the global air-and-ground network, brand, and scale are genuine assets, but the company is exposed to commoditized freight, Amazon volume c…
Exxon Mobil is the largest integrated oil and gas major in the United States, operating across Upstream exploration and production, Downstream refining and fuels marketing, and Chemical manufacturing, with roughly 57,900 employees and a portfolio that spans conventional crude and natural gas, LNG, petrochemicals, and early-stage carbon capture, hydrogen, and biofuels ventures. The business qualit…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
UPS |
XOM |
| Zone Low |
$89.94 |
$134.98 |
| Zone High |
$101.93 |
$152.98 |
| In Buy Zone? |
Yes
|
No
|