UPS vs VST: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of United Parcel Service, Inc. and Vistra Corp. — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-08-06.
United Parcel Service, Inc. · Industrials
$105.00
+12.9% upside to fair value
Grade B
VS
Vistra Corp. · Utilities
$140.58
+20.9% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade B
QuantHub Verdict
VST has more upside to fair value
(+20.9%).
VST trades at a lower forward P/E
(15.4x).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
See all research →
Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
UPS |
VST |
| Current Price |
$105.00 |
$140.58 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$118.53 |
$170.00 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
+12.9%
|
+20.9%
|
| Market Cap |
$89.2B |
$47.4B |
| Forward P/E |
17.0x
|
15.4x
|
| EV / EBITDA |
9.6x
|
9.3x
|
| Price / Sales |
1.0x
|
2.9x
|
| Price / FCF |
19.8x
|
42.5x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
-1.6%
|
+20.0%
|
| Gross Margin |
17.8%
|
12.7%
|
| Operating Margin |
8.5%
|
2.1%
|
| Return on Equity |
33.0%
|
35.0%
|
| Dividend Yield |
0% |
0.65% |
| FCF Yield |
5.06%
|
2.4%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Buy
|
Strong Buy
|
Investment Thesis
United Parcel Service, Inc. operates as a global integrated freight and logistics company with a strong presence in U.S. domestic package delivery, international package services, and supply chain solutions. The company benefits from a durable competitive moat supported by its extensive network capabilities, premium service positioning, and strategic focus on higher-margin segments such as health…
Vistra is an integrated merchant power producer and retail electricity supplier with roughly 38,700 MW of generation across natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar and battery storage, plus a roughly 4.3 million customer retail book (TXU and affiliated brands) across 20 states. The 2024 Energy Harbor deal made it the second-largest nuclear operator in the US, and that nuclear and gas fleet is now centr…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
UPS |
VST |
| Zone Low |
$88.90 |
$128.00 |
| Zone High |
$100.75 |
$145.00 |
| In Buy Zone? |
No
|
Yes
|