UPS vs VST: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of United Parcel Service, Inc. and Vistra Corp. — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-09-19.
United Parcel Service, Inc. · Industrials
$99.02
+21.1% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade B
VS
Vistra Corp. · Utilities
$140.67
-23.0% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade C
QuantHub Verdict
UPS has more upside to fair value
(+21.1%).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
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Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
UPS |
VST |
| Current Price |
$99.02 |
$140.67 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$119.92 |
$108.27 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
+21.1%
|
-23.0%
|
| Market Cap |
$84.1B |
$47.4B |
| Forward P/E |
—
|
—
|
| EV / EBITDA |
10.2x
|
10.3x
|
| Price / Sales |
0.9x
|
3.0x
|
| Price / FCF |
15.3x
|
34.7x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+7.6%
|
-5.5%
|
| Gross Margin |
16.6%
|
13.0%
|
| Operating Margin |
7.3%
|
2.3%
|
| Return on Equity |
29.1%
|
41.5%
|
| Dividend Yield |
6.62% |
0.65% |
| FCF Yield |
6.52%
|
2.88%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Hold
|
Strong Buy
|
Investment Thesis
United Parcel Service is the world's largest integrated package delivery and logistics network, operating U.S. Domestic Package and International Package segments with roughly 460,000 employees and a 119-year operating history. The business quality is medium: the global air-and-ground network, brand, and scale are genuine assets, but the company is exposed to commoditized freight, Amazon volume c…
Vistra Corp. is a vertically integrated independent power producer and retail electricity supplier operating roughly 38,700 megawatts of generation across natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery storage, serving about 4.3 million retail customers in 20 states and the District of Columbia. The business quality is mixed: the diversified PJM and ERCOT fleet plus retail load is a genuine struc…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
UPS |
VST |
| Zone Low |
$89.94 |
$81.20 |
| Zone High |
$101.93 |
$92.03 |
| In Buy Zone? |
Yes
|
No
|