NKE vs VST: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of NIKE, Inc. and Vistra Corp. — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-09-19.
NIKE, Inc. · Consumer Cyclical
$35.78
+9.9% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade C
VS
Vistra Corp. · Utilities
$140.67
-23.0% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade C
QuantHub Verdict
NKE has more upside to fair value
(+9.9%).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
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Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
NKE |
VST |
| Current Price |
$35.78 |
$140.67 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$39.33 |
$108.27 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
+9.9%
|
-23.0%
|
| Market Cap |
$53.0B |
$47.4B |
| Forward P/E |
—
|
—
|
| EV / EBITDA |
12.0x
|
10.3x
|
| Price / Sales |
1.1x
|
3.0x
|
| Price / FCF |
24.3x
|
34.7x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
-1.1%
|
-5.5%
|
| Gross Margin |
42.9%
|
13.0%
|
| Operating Margin |
8.2%
|
2.3%
|
| Return on Equity |
22.0%
|
41.5%
|
| Dividend Yield |
4.58% |
0.65% |
| FCF Yield |
4.12%
|
2.88%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Hold
|
Strong Buy
|
Investment Thesis
NIKE designs, markets and distributes athletic footwear, apparel and equipment through the Nike, Jordan and Converse brands, supported by global athlete marketing, valuable intellectual property and a broad wholesale and owned-digital network. Business quality is medium: its brand moat and 22.0% ROE remain meaningful, but the moat is narrowing amid intense competition, weak direct sales and uneve…
Vistra Corp. is a vertically integrated independent power producer and retail electricity supplier operating roughly 38,700 megawatts of generation across natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery storage, serving about 4.3 million retail customers in 20 states and the District of Columbia. The business quality is mixed: the diversified PJM and ERCOT fleet plus retail load is a genuine struc…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
NKE |
VST |
| Zone Low |
$29.50 |
$81.20 |
| Zone High |
$33.43 |
$92.03 |
| In Buy Zone? |
No
|
No
|