MCD vs VST: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of McDonald's Corporation and Vistra Corp. — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-08-06.
McDonald's Corporation · Consumer Cyclical
$267.71
+20.6% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade C+
High Quality
VS
Vistra Corp. · Utilities
$140.58
+20.9% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade B
QuantHub Verdict
VST has more upside to fair value
(+20.9%).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
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Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
MCD |
VST |
| Current Price |
$267.71 |
$140.58 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$322.85 |
$170.00 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
+20.6%
|
+20.9%
|
| Market Cap |
$190.2B |
$47.4B |
| Forward P/E |
—
|
15.4x
|
| EV / EBITDA |
16.4x
|
9.3x
|
| Price / Sales |
6.9x
|
2.9x
|
| Price / FCF |
27.0x
|
42.5x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+9.4%
|
+20.0%
|
| Gross Margin |
57.4%
|
12.7%
|
| Operating Margin |
46.0%
|
2.1%
|
| Return on Equity |
-433.9%
|
35.0%
|
| Dividend Yield |
2.75% |
0.65% |
| FCF Yield |
3.7%
|
2.4%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Buy
|
Strong Buy
|
Investment Thesis
McDonald's is a global quick-service restaurant franchisor and real-estate platform whose approximately 95% franchised restaurant base generates unusually high-margin, recurring royalty and rent income, supporting a 46.0% operating margin and 31.6% net margin. Business quality is high because its brand, global purchasing scale, nearly 29,000 drive-thrus, digital ecosystem and 210 million 90-day a…
Vistra is an integrated merchant power producer and retail electricity supplier with roughly 38,700 MW of generation across natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar and battery storage, plus a roughly 4.3 million customer retail book (TXU and affiliated brands) across 20 states. The 2024 Energy Harbor deal made it the second-largest nuclear operator in the US, and that nuclear and gas fleet is now centr…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
MCD |
VST |
| Zone Low |
$242.14 |
$128.00 |
| Zone High |
$274.42 |
$145.00 |
| In Buy Zone? |
Yes
|
Yes
|