MCD vs UPS: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of McDonald's Corporation and United Parcel Service, Inc. — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-09-19.
McDonald's Corporation · Consumer Cyclical
$252.78
+40.7% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade A
High Quality
VS
United Parcel Service, Inc. · Industrials
$99.02
+21.1% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade B
QuantHub Verdict
MCD has more upside to fair value
(+40.7%).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
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Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
MCD |
UPS |
| Current Price |
$252.78 |
$99.02 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$355.71 |
$119.92 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
+40.7%
|
+21.1%
|
| Market Cap |
$179.6B |
$84.1B |
| Forward P/E |
—
|
—
|
| EV / EBITDA |
15.5x
|
10.2x
|
| Price / Sales |
6.5x
|
0.9x
|
| Price / FCF |
23.1x
|
15.3x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+3.8%
|
+7.6%
|
| Gross Margin |
57.4%
|
16.6%
|
| Operating Margin |
45.8%
|
7.3%
|
| Return on Equity |
-561.2%
|
29.1%
|
| Dividend Yield |
2.94% |
6.62% |
| FCF Yield |
4.32%
|
6.52%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Buy
|
Hold
|
Investment Thesis
McDonald's operates a globally scaled, approximately 95% franchised restaurant system with 46,028 restaurants in more than 100 countries, combining a powerful consumer brand, real-estate-backed franchise economics, supplier scale and digital loyalty reach. Business quality is high despite meaningful leverage: TTM gross, operating and net margins are 57.4%, 45.8% and 31.7%, respectively, while loy…
United Parcel Service is the world's largest integrated package delivery and logistics network, operating U.S. Domestic Package and International Package segments with roughly 460,000 employees and a 119-year operating history. The business quality is medium: the global air-and-ground network, brand, and scale are genuine assets, but the company is exposed to commoditized freight, Amazon volume c…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
MCD |
UPS |
| Zone Low |
$266.78 |
$89.94 |
| Zone High |
$302.35 |
$101.93 |
| In Buy Zone? |
Yes
|
Yes
|