MA vs XOM: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of Mastercard Incorporated and Exxon Mobil Corporation — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-04-11.
Mastercard Incorporated · Financial Services
$498.66
+22.3% upside to fair value
High Conviction
Grade A-
VS
Exxon Mobil Corporation · Energy
$152.30
-33.0% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade C+
QuantHub Verdict
MA has more upside to fair value
(+22.3%).
XOM trades at a lower forward P/E
(17.5x).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
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Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
MA |
XOM |
| Current Price |
$498.66 |
$152.30 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$610.00 |
$102.00 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
+22.3%
|
-33.0%
|
| Market Cap |
$445.0B |
$634.6B |
| Forward P/E |
25.5x
|
17.5x
|
| EV / EBITDA |
22.4x
|
9.8x
|
| Price / Sales |
13.6x
|
2.0x
|
| Price / FCF |
26.0x
|
26.9x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+16.4%
|
-4.5%
|
| Gross Margin |
83.4%
|
21.7%
|
| Operating Margin |
59.2%
|
10.5%
|
| Return on Equity |
198.4%
|
11.1%
|
| Dividend Yield |
0.65% |
2.65% |
| FCF Yield |
3.84%
|
3.72%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Strong Buy
|
Buy
|
Investment Thesis
Mastercard operates one of the world's two dominant payment networks, processing over $9 trillion in gross dollar volume annually across 220+ countries. The business generates 83% gross margins and 46% net margins with zero credit risk because Mastercard never lends money, only collecting tolls on every transaction. Value-Added Services (analytics, fraud prevention, cybersecurity) now comprise 41…
Exxon Mobil is a world-class integrated energy supermajor with unmatched Permian Basin scale following the Pioneer Natural Resources acquisition, a high-margin Guyana growth engine, and disciplined capital allocation. However, the stock remains significantly overvalued relative to its own 5-year history on every key metric. At $152, XOM trades at roughly 22x trailing earnings, 1.96x sales, and 27…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
MA |
XOM |
| Zone Low |
$460.00 |
$77.00 |
| Zone High |
$515.00 |
$92.00 |
| In Buy Zone? |
Yes
|
No
|