MA vs UPS: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of Mastercard Incorporated and United Parcel Service, Inc. — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-04-11.
Mastercard Incorporated · Financial Services
$498.66
+22.3% upside to fair value
High Conviction
Grade A-
VS
United Parcel Service, Inc. · Industrials
$101.69
+27.8% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade B-
QuantHub Verdict
UPS has more upside to fair value
(+27.8%).
UPS trades at a lower forward P/E
(15.1x).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
See all research →
Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
MA |
UPS |
| Current Price |
$498.66 |
$101.69 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$610.00 |
$130.00 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
+22.3%
|
+27.8%
|
| Market Cap |
$445.0B |
$86.4B |
| Forward P/E |
25.5x
|
15.1x
|
| EV / EBITDA |
22.4x
|
9.1x
|
| Price / Sales |
13.6x
|
0.9x
|
| Price / FCF |
26.0x
|
17.7x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+16.4%
|
-2.5%
|
| Gross Margin |
83.4%
|
18.5%
|
| Operating Margin |
59.2%
|
9.56%
|
| Return on Equity |
198.4%
|
34.3%
|
| Dividend Yield |
0.65% |
6.41% |
| FCF Yield |
3.84%
|
5.66%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Strong Buy
|
Hold
|
Investment Thesis
Mastercard operates one of the world's two dominant payment networks, processing over $9 trillion in gross dollar volume annually across 220+ countries. The business generates 83% gross margins and 46% net margins with zero credit risk because Mastercard never lends money, only collecting tolls on every transaction. Value-Added Services (analytics, fraud prevention, cybersecurity) now comprise 41…
UPS is the world's largest integrated logistics network with 241,250 employees, operations in 200-plus countries, and 20.8 million packages per day, now in the decisive phase of its most consequential restructuring in 118 years. By deliberately cutting Amazon volume by more than 50 percent (Amazon was 10.6 percent of 2025 revenue), closing 22 to 24 facilities, and eliminating 30,000 positions, ma…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
MA |
UPS |
| Zone Low |
$460.00 |
$95.00 |
| Zone High |
$515.00 |
$112.00 |
| In Buy Zone? |
Yes
|
Yes
|