LLY vs XOM: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of Eli Lilly and Company and Exxon Mobil Corporation — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-04-11.
Eli Lilly and Company · Healthcare
$939.47
+71.1% upside to fair value
High Conviction
Grade A
VS
Exxon Mobil Corporation · Energy
$152.30
-33.0% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade C+
QuantHub Verdict
LLY has more upside to fair value
(+71.1%).
XOM trades at a lower forward P/E
(17.5x).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
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Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
LLY |
XOM |
| Current Price |
$939.47 |
$152.30 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$1,607.00 |
$102.00 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
+71.1%
|
-33.0%
|
| Market Cap |
$887.6B |
$634.6B |
| Forward P/E |
27.4x
|
17.5x
|
| EV / EBITDA |
35.8x
|
9.8x
|
| Price / Sales |
14.8x
|
2.0x
|
| Price / FCF |
107.6x
|
26.9x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+44.7%
|
-4.5%
|
| Gross Margin |
83.8%
|
21.7%
|
| Operating Margin |
45.6%
|
10.5%
|
| Return on Equity |
77.8%
|
11.1%
|
| Dividend Yield |
0.56% |
2.65% |
| FCF Yield |
0.93%
|
3.72%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Strong Buy
|
Buy
|
Investment Thesis
Eli Lilly remains the dominant GLP-1 franchise holder with Mounjaro and Zepbound generating $36.5B combined in 2025 on 45% total revenue growth to $65.2B. The company guided $80-83B for 2026, well above prior Street consensus, and launched Foundayo (oral GLP-1, FDA approved April 2026) with $1.5B pre-built inventory. At $939 the stock trades at 14.8x P/S, right at its 5-year median, and 27.4x for…
Exxon Mobil is a world-class integrated energy supermajor with unmatched Permian Basin scale following the Pioneer Natural Resources acquisition, a high-margin Guyana growth engine, and disciplined capital allocation. However, the stock remains significantly overvalued relative to its own 5-year history on every key metric. At $152, XOM trades at roughly 22x trailing earnings, 1.96x sales, and 27…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
LLY |
XOM |
| Zone Low |
$1,205.00 |
$77.00 |
| Zone High |
$1,366.00 |
$92.00 |
| In Buy Zone? |
Yes
|
No
|