LLY vs VST: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of Eli Lilly and Company and Vistra Corp. — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-08-06.
Eli Lilly and Company · Healthcare
$1,179.09
+31.7% upside to fair value
High Conviction
Grade A
High Quality
VS
Vistra Corp. · Utilities
$140.58
+20.9% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade B
QuantHub Verdict
LLY has more upside to fair value
(+31.7%).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
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Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
LLY |
VST |
| Current Price |
$1,179.09 |
$140.58 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$1,552.32 |
$170.00 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
+31.7%
|
+20.9%
|
| Market Cap |
$1,110.4B |
$47.4B |
| Forward P/E |
—
|
15.4x
|
| EV / EBITDA |
34.3x
|
9.3x
|
| Price / Sales |
14.6x
|
2.9x
|
| Price / FCF |
77.7x
|
42.5x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+55.5%
|
+20.0%
|
| Gross Margin |
83.5%
|
12.7%
|
| Operating Margin |
45.9%
|
2.1%
|
| Return on Equity |
101.3%
|
35.0%
|
| Dividend Yield |
0.55% |
0.65% |
| FCF Yield |
1.29%
|
2.4%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Strong Buy
|
Strong Buy
|
Investment Thesis
Eli Lilly is a global biopharma company whose exceptionally profitable cardiometabolic franchises, led by Mounjaro and Zepbound, are driving a high-quality growth phase: revenue rose 55.5% year over year and earnings rose 168.0% year over year in the most recent quarter, while gross, operating, and net margins were 83.5%, 45.9%, and 35.0%, respectively. Business quality is high because tirzepatid…
Vistra is an integrated merchant power producer and retail electricity supplier with roughly 38,700 MW of generation across natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar and battery storage, plus a roughly 4.3 million customer retail book (TXU and affiliated brands) across 20 states. The 2024 Energy Harbor deal made it the second-largest nuclear operator in the US, and that nuclear and gas fleet is now centr…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
LLY |
VST |
| Zone Low |
$1,164.24 |
$128.00 |
| Zone High |
$1,319.47 |
$145.00 |
| In Buy Zone? |
Yes
|
Yes
|