LLY vs UPS: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of Eli Lilly and Company and United Parcel Service, Inc. — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-09-26.
Eli Lilly and Company · Healthcare
$1,183.72
+2.1% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade B
High Quality
VS
United Parcel Service, Inc. · Industrials
$99.02
+21.1% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade B
QuantHub Verdict
UPS has more upside to fair value
(+21.1%).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
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Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
LLY |
UPS |
| Current Price |
$1,183.72 |
$99.02 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$1,208.00 |
$119.92 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
+2.1%
|
+21.1%
|
| Market Cap |
$1,114.8B |
$84.1B |
| Forward P/E |
—
|
—
|
| EV / EBITDA |
26.8x
|
10.2x
|
| Price / Sales |
14.0x
|
0.9x
|
| Price / FCF |
52.7x
|
15.3x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+47.7%
|
+7.6%
|
| Gross Margin |
83.4%
|
16.6%
|
| Operating Margin |
49.7%
|
7.3%
|
| Return on Equity |
92.6%
|
29.1%
|
| Dividend Yield |
0.57% |
6.62% |
| FCF Yield |
1.9%
|
6.52%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Strong Buy
|
Hold
|
Investment Thesis
Eli Lilly is a global pharmaceutical company whose incretin franchise, led by Mounjaro and Zepbound, has become the dominant growth engine in diabetes and obesity care. The business quality is high: TTM gross margin is 83.4%, TTM operating margin is 49.7%, TTM net margin is 33.5%, and ROE is 92.6%, while revenue grew 47.7% and earnings grew 25.3% in the most recent quarter on a year-over-year bas…
United Parcel Service is the world's largest integrated package delivery and logistics network, operating U.S. Domestic Package and International Package segments with roughly 460,000 employees and a 119-year operating history. The business quality is medium: the global air-and-ground network, brand, and scale are genuine assets, but the company is exposed to commoditized freight, Amazon volume c…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
LLY |
UPS |
| Zone Low |
$906.00 |
$89.94 |
| Zone High |
$1,026.80 |
$101.93 |
| In Buy Zone? |
No
|
Yes
|