LLY vs UPS: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of Eli Lilly and Company and United Parcel Service, Inc. — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-07-17.
Eli Lilly and Company · Healthcare
$1,179.09
+31.7% upside to fair value
High Conviction
Grade A
High Quality
VS
United Parcel Service, Inc. · Industrials
$105.00
+12.9% upside to fair value
Grade B
QuantHub Verdict
LLY has more upside to fair value
(+31.7%).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
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Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
LLY |
UPS |
| Current Price |
$1,179.09 |
$105.00 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$1,552.32 |
$118.53 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
+31.7%
|
+12.9%
|
| Market Cap |
$1,110.4B |
$89.2B |
| Forward P/E |
—
|
17.0x
|
| EV / EBITDA |
34.3x
|
9.6x
|
| Price / Sales |
14.6x
|
1.0x
|
| Price / FCF |
77.7x
|
19.8x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+55.5%
|
-1.6%
|
| Gross Margin |
83.5%
|
17.8%
|
| Operating Margin |
45.9%
|
8.5%
|
| Return on Equity |
101.3%
|
33.0%
|
| Dividend Yield |
0.55% |
0% |
| FCF Yield |
1.29%
|
5.06%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Strong Buy
|
Buy
|
Investment Thesis
Eli Lilly is a global biopharma company whose exceptionally profitable cardiometabolic franchises, led by Mounjaro and Zepbound, are driving a high-quality growth phase: revenue rose 55.5% year over year and earnings rose 168.0% year over year in the most recent quarter, while gross, operating, and net margins were 83.5%, 45.9%, and 35.0%, respectively. Business quality is high because tirzepatid…
United Parcel Service, Inc. operates as a global integrated freight and logistics company with a strong presence in U.S. domestic package delivery, international package services, and supply chain solutions. The company benefits from a durable competitive moat supported by its extensive network capabilities, premium service positioning, and strategic focus on higher-margin segments such as health…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
LLY |
UPS |
| Zone Low |
$1,164.24 |
$88.90 |
| Zone High |
$1,319.47 |
$100.75 |
| In Buy Zone? |
Yes
|
No
|