LLY vs UPS: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of Eli Lilly and Company and United Parcel Service, Inc. — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-04-11.
Eli Lilly and Company · Healthcare
$939.47
+71.1% upside to fair value
High Conviction
Grade A
VS
United Parcel Service, Inc. · Industrials
$101.69
+27.8% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade B-
QuantHub Verdict
LLY has more upside to fair value
(+71.1%).
UPS trades at a lower forward P/E
(15.1x).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
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Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
LLY |
UPS |
| Current Price |
$939.47 |
$101.69 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$1,607.00 |
$130.00 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
+71.1%
|
+27.8%
|
| Market Cap |
$887.6B |
$86.4B |
| Forward P/E |
27.4x
|
15.1x
|
| EV / EBITDA |
35.8x
|
9.1x
|
| Price / Sales |
14.8x
|
0.9x
|
| Price / FCF |
107.6x
|
17.7x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+44.7%
|
-2.5%
|
| Gross Margin |
83.8%
|
18.5%
|
| Operating Margin |
45.6%
|
9.56%
|
| Return on Equity |
77.8%
|
34.3%
|
| Dividend Yield |
0.56% |
6.41% |
| FCF Yield |
0.93%
|
5.66%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Strong Buy
|
Hold
|
Investment Thesis
Eli Lilly remains the dominant GLP-1 franchise holder with Mounjaro and Zepbound generating $36.5B combined in 2025 on 45% total revenue growth to $65.2B. The company guided $80-83B for 2026, well above prior Street consensus, and launched Foundayo (oral GLP-1, FDA approved April 2026) with $1.5B pre-built inventory. At $939 the stock trades at 14.8x P/S, right at its 5-year median, and 27.4x for…
UPS is the world's largest integrated logistics network with 241,250 employees, operations in 200-plus countries, and 20.8 million packages per day, now in the decisive phase of its most consequential restructuring in 118 years. By deliberately cutting Amazon volume by more than 50 percent (Amazon was 10.6 percent of 2025 revenue), closing 22 to 24 facilities, and eliminating 30,000 positions, ma…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
LLY |
UPS |
| Zone Low |
$1,205.00 |
$95.00 |
| Zone High |
$1,366.00 |
$112.00 |
| In Buy Zone? |
Yes
|
Yes
|