LLY vs MRK: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of Eli Lilly and Company and Merck & Co., Inc. — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-04-11.
Eli Lilly and Company · Healthcare
$939.47
+71.1% upside to fair value
High Conviction
Grade A
VS
Merck & Co., Inc. · Healthcare
$121.42
-2.9% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade B
QuantHub Verdict
LLY has more upside to fair value
(+71.1%).
MRK trades at a lower forward P/E
(14.0x).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
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Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
LLY |
MRK |
| Current Price |
$939.47 |
$121.42 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$1,607.00 |
$118.00 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
+71.1%
|
-2.9%
|
| Market Cap |
$887.6B |
$300.2B |
| Forward P/E |
27.4x
|
14.0x
|
| EV / EBITDA |
35.8x
|
11.8x
|
| Price / Sales |
14.8x
|
4.1x
|
| Price / FCF |
107.6x
|
21.4x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+44.7%
|
+1.3%
|
| Gross Margin |
83.8%
|
81.5%
|
| Operating Margin |
45.6%
|
41.2%
|
| Return on Equity |
77.8%
|
34.7%
|
| Dividend Yield |
0.56% |
3.1% |
| FCF Yield |
0.93%
|
4.7%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Strong Buy
|
Buy
|
Investment Thesis
Eli Lilly remains the dominant GLP-1 franchise holder with Mounjaro and Zepbound generating $36.5B combined in 2025 on 45% total revenue growth to $65.2B. The company guided $80-83B for 2026, well above prior Street consensus, and launched Foundayo (oral GLP-1, FDA approved April 2026) with $1.5B pre-built inventory. At $939 the stock trades at 14.8x P/S, right at its 5-year median, and 27.4x for…
Merck is a top-5 global pharmaceutical company generating $65B in annual revenue with 81.5% gross margins and 28% net margins. Keytruda, the world's best-selling drug at $31.7B (49% of pharma revenue), faces patent expiry in 2028. Merck is aggressively building replacements through M&A and pipeline launches: Winrevair ($1.4B year one), Capvaxive ($759M), and the $6.7B Terns acquisition for TERN-7…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
LLY |
MRK |
| Zone Low |
$1,205.00 |
$88.00 |
| Zone High |
$1,366.00 |
$100.00 |
| In Buy Zone? |
Yes
|
No
|