LLY vs MRK: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of Eli Lilly and Company and Merck & Co., Inc. — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-07-17.
Eli Lilly and Company · Healthcare
$1,179.09
+31.7% upside to fair value
High Conviction
Grade A
High Quality
VS
Merck & Co., Inc. · Healthcare
$113.87
-12.1% upside to fair value
Grade D
High Quality
QuantHub Verdict
LLY has more upside to fair value
(+31.7%).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
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Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
LLY |
MRK |
| Current Price |
$1,179.09 |
$113.87 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$1,552.32 |
$100.14 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
+31.7%
|
-12.1%
|
| Market Cap |
$1,110.4B |
$281.2B |
| Forward P/E |
—
|
32.0x
|
| EV / EBITDA |
34.3x
|
17.3x
|
| Price / Sales |
14.6x
|
4.3x
|
| Price / FCF |
77.7x
|
19.9x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+55.5%
|
+4.3%
|
| Gross Margin |
83.5%
|
75.9%
|
| Operating Margin |
45.9%
|
27.6%
|
| Return on Equity |
101.3%
|
17.9%
|
| Dividend Yield |
0.55% |
0% |
| FCF Yield |
1.29%
|
5.02%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Strong Buy
|
Hold
|
Investment Thesis
Eli Lilly is a global biopharma company whose exceptionally profitable cardiometabolic franchises, led by Mounjaro and Zepbound, are driving a high-quality growth phase: revenue rose 55.5% year over year and earnings rose 168.0% year over year in the most recent quarter, while gross, operating, and net margins were 83.5%, 45.9%, and 35.0%, respectively. Business quality is high because tirzepatid…
Merck & Co., Inc. is a leading global healthcare company specializing in pharmaceuticals, vaccines, and animal health products. Its business quality is high, supported by a durable competitive moat anchored in the dominant global position of Keytruda in PD-1/PD-L1 oncology, a strong vaccines portfolio including Gardasil, and scale in R&D and manufacturing. The company benefits from a seasoned lea…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
LLY |
MRK |
| Zone Low |
$1,164.24 |
$75.11 |
| Zone High |
$1,319.47 |
$85.12 |
| In Buy Zone? |
Yes
|
No
|