LLY vs MCD: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of Eli Lilly and Company and McDonald's Corporation — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-04-11.
Eli Lilly and Company · Healthcare
$939.47
+71.1% upside to fair value
High Conviction
Grade A
VS
McDonald's Corporation · Consumer Cyclical
$305.68
+4.7% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade B
QuantHub Verdict
LLY has more upside to fair value
(+71.1%).
MCD trades at a lower forward P/E
(24.5x).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
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Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
LLY |
MCD |
| Current Price |
$939.47 |
$305.68 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$1,607.00 |
$320.00 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
+71.1%
|
+4.7%
|
| Market Cap |
$887.6B |
$218.1B |
| Forward P/E |
27.4x
|
24.5x
|
| EV / EBITDA |
35.8x
|
18.6x
|
| Price / Sales |
14.8x
|
8.1x
|
| Price / FCF |
107.6x
|
30.3x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+44.7%
|
+3.7%
|
| Gross Margin |
83.8%
|
57.4%
|
| Operating Margin |
45.6%
|
46.1%
|
| Return on Equity |
77.8%
|
—
|
| Dividend Yield |
0.56% |
2.4% |
| FCF Yield |
0.93%
|
3.3%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Strong Buy
|
Buy
|
Investment Thesis
Eli Lilly remains the dominant GLP-1 franchise holder with Mounjaro and Zepbound generating $36.5B combined in 2025 on 45% total revenue growth to $65.2B. The company guided $80-83B for 2026, well above prior Street consensus, and launched Foundayo (oral GLP-1, FDA approved April 2026) with $1.5B pre-built inventory. At $939 the stock trades at 14.8x P/S, right at its 5-year median, and 27.4x for…
McDonald's operates the world's largest quick-service restaurant franchise with over 40,000 locations across 100+ countries, generating $26.9B in FY2025 revenue with roughly 60% from franchised operations. The asset-light franchise model produces 46% operating margins and $7.2B in annual free cash flow. Revenue growth reaccelerated modestly to 3.7% in FY2025 from 1.7% in FY2024, driven by the Int…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
LLY |
MCD |
| Zone Low |
$1,205.00 |
$240.00 |
| Zone High |
$1,366.00 |
$272.00 |
| In Buy Zone? |
Yes
|
No
|