LLY vs MA: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of Eli Lilly and Company and Mastercard Incorporated — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-04-11.
Eli Lilly and Company · Healthcare
$939.47
+71.1% upside to fair value
High Conviction
Grade A
VS
Mastercard Incorporated · Financial Services
$498.66
+22.3% upside to fair value
High Conviction
Grade A-
QuantHub Verdict
LLY has more upside to fair value
(+71.1%).
MA trades at a lower forward P/E
(25.5x).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
See all research →
Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
LLY |
MA |
| Current Price |
$939.47 |
$498.66 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$1,607.00 |
$610.00 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
+71.1%
|
+22.3%
|
| Market Cap |
$887.6B |
$445.0B |
| Forward P/E |
27.4x
|
25.5x
|
| EV / EBITDA |
35.8x
|
22.4x
|
| Price / Sales |
14.8x
|
13.6x
|
| Price / FCF |
107.6x
|
26.0x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+44.7%
|
+16.4%
|
| Gross Margin |
83.8%
|
83.4%
|
| Operating Margin |
45.6%
|
59.2%
|
| Return on Equity |
77.8%
|
198.4%
|
| Dividend Yield |
0.56% |
0.65% |
| FCF Yield |
0.93%
|
3.84%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Strong Buy
|
Strong Buy
|
Investment Thesis
Eli Lilly remains the dominant GLP-1 franchise holder with Mounjaro and Zepbound generating $36.5B combined in 2025 on 45% total revenue growth to $65.2B. The company guided $80-83B for 2026, well above prior Street consensus, and launched Foundayo (oral GLP-1, FDA approved April 2026) with $1.5B pre-built inventory. At $939 the stock trades at 14.8x P/S, right at its 5-year median, and 27.4x for…
Mastercard operates one of the world's two dominant payment networks, processing over $9 trillion in gross dollar volume annually across 220+ countries. The business generates 83% gross margins and 46% net margins with zero credit risk because Mastercard never lends money, only collecting tolls on every transaction. Value-Added Services (analytics, fraud prevention, cybersecurity) now comprise 41…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
LLY |
MA |
| Zone Low |
$1,205.00 |
$460.00 |
| Zone High |
$1,366.00 |
$515.00 |
| In Buy Zone? |
Yes
|
Yes
|