JNJ vs LLY: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of Johnson & Johnson and Eli Lilly and Company — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-04-11.
Johnson & Johnson · Healthcare
$238.46
-11.8% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade C+
VS
Eli Lilly and Company · Healthcare
$939.47
+71.1% upside to fair value
High Conviction
Grade A
QuantHub Verdict
LLY has more upside to fair value
(+71.1%).
JNJ trades at a lower forward P/E
(20.2x).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
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Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
JNJ |
LLY |
| Current Price |
$238.46 |
$939.47 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$210.28 |
$1,607.00 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
-11.8%
|
+71.1%
|
| Market Cap |
$574.7B |
$887.6B |
| Forward P/E |
20.2x
|
27.4x
|
| EV / EBITDA |
13.3x
|
35.8x
|
| Price / Sales |
6.2x
|
14.8x
|
| Price / FCF |
29.4x
|
107.6x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+6.1%
|
+44.7%
|
| Gross Margin |
72.8%
|
83.8%
|
| Operating Margin |
27.2%
|
45.6%
|
| Return on Equity |
32.87%
|
77.8%
|
| Dividend Yield |
2.18% |
0.56% |
| FCF Yield |
3.4%
|
0.93%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Moderate Buy
|
Strong Buy
|
Investment Thesis
Johnson & Johnson is a high-quality healthcare conglomerate focused exclusively on Innovative Medicine and MedTech following the Kenvue spin-off. The company delivered $94.2B in FY2025 revenue with 6% operational growth, generated $19.7B in free cash flow, and guided for $99.5-100.5B in 2026 operational sales (above consensus). However, at $238 the stock trades at a P/S of 6.15x, well above the 5…
Eli Lilly remains the dominant GLP-1 franchise holder with Mounjaro and Zepbound generating $36.5B combined in 2025 on 45% total revenue growth to $65.2B. The company guided $80-83B for 2026, well above prior Street consensus, and launched Foundayo (oral GLP-1, FDA approved April 2026) with $1.5B pre-built inventory. At $939 the stock trades at 14.8x P/S, right at its 5-year median, and 27.4x for…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
JNJ |
LLY |
| Zone Low |
$157.71 |
$1,205.00 |
| Zone High |
$178.74 |
$1,366.00 |
| In Buy Zone? |
No
|
Yes
|