HD vs UPS: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of The Home Depot, Inc. and United Parcel Service, Inc. — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-04-11.
The Home Depot, Inc. · Consumer Cyclical
$337.34
+12.1% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade B
VS
United Parcel Service, Inc. · Industrials
$101.69
+27.8% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade B-
QuantHub Verdict
UPS has more upside to fair value
(+27.8%).
UPS trades at a lower forward P/E
(15.1x).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
See all research →
Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
HD |
UPS |
| Current Price |
$337.34 |
$101.69 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$378.00 |
$130.00 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
+12.1%
|
+27.8%
|
| Market Cap |
$336.0B |
$86.4B |
| Forward P/E |
23.0x
|
15.1x
|
| EV / EBITDA |
18.1x
|
9.1x
|
| Price / Sales |
2.3x
|
0.9x
|
| Price / FCF |
29.7x
|
17.7x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+3.2%
|
-2.5%
|
| Gross Margin |
33.3%
|
18.5%
|
| Operating Margin |
12.7%
|
9.56%
|
| Return on Equity |
110.5%
|
34.3%
|
| Dividend Yield |
2.44% |
6.41% |
| FCF Yield |
3.37%
|
5.66%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Buy
|
Hold
|
Investment Thesis
Home Depot remains the world's largest home improvement retailer with 2,350+ stores, dominant 52% market share, and a rapidly growing Pro contractor segment bolstered by the SRS Distribution acquisition. The stock has declined 21% from its $427 high to $337, but now trades at 2.28x P/S, near the 5-year median of 2.31x, and 26.5x P/E which is above the 5-year median of 23.5x. EPS declined 4.6% in …
UPS is the world's largest integrated logistics network with 241,250 employees, operations in 200-plus countries, and 20.8 million packages per day, now in the decisive phase of its most consequential restructuring in 118 years. By deliberately cutting Amazon volume by more than 50 percent (Amazon was 10.6 percent of 2025 revenue), closing 22 to 24 facilities, and eliminating 30,000 positions, ma…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
HD |
UPS |
| Zone Low |
$285.00 |
$95.00 |
| Zone High |
$320.00 |
$112.00 |
| In Buy Zone? |
No
|
Yes
|