HD vs UPS: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of The Home Depot, Inc. and United Parcel Service, Inc. — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-09-25.
The Home Depot, Inc. · Consumer Cyclical
$292.18
+44.2% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade B
High Quality
VS
United Parcel Service, Inc. · Industrials
$99.02
+21.1% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade B
QuantHub Verdict
HD has more upside to fair value
(+44.2%).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
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Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
HD |
UPS |
| Current Price |
$292.18 |
$99.02 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$421.26 |
$119.92 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
+44.2%
|
+21.1%
|
| Market Cap |
$291.3B |
$84.1B |
| Forward P/E |
—
|
—
|
| EV / EBITDA |
14.7x
|
10.2x
|
| Price / Sales |
1.7x
|
0.9x
|
| Price / FCF |
19.2x
|
15.3x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+5.7%
|
+7.6%
|
| Gross Margin |
33.2%
|
16.6%
|
| Operating Margin |
12.4%
|
7.3%
|
| Return on Equity |
102.7%
|
29.1%
|
| Dividend Yield |
3.18% |
6.62% |
| FCF Yield |
5.2%
|
6.52%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Strong Buy
|
Hold
|
Investment Thesis
The Home Depot is the largest home-improvement retailer in the United States, operating a network of roughly 2,300 stores supported by about 472,400 full-time employees, and serving both do-it-yourself homeowners and professional contractors through stores, homedepot.com, and specialty sites such as blinds.com. The business quality is high: it generates a 102.7% return on equity, a 33.2% trailing…
United Parcel Service is the world's largest integrated package delivery and logistics network, operating U.S. Domestic Package and International Package segments with roughly 460,000 employees and a 119-year operating history. The business quality is medium: the global air-and-ground network, brand, and scale are genuine assets, but the company is exposed to commoditized freight, Amazon volume c…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
HD |
UPS |
| Zone Low |
$315.94 |
$89.94 |
| Zone High |
$358.07 |
$101.93 |
| In Buy Zone? |
Yes
|
Yes
|