COST vs XOM: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of Costco Wholesale Corporation and Exxon Mobil Corporation — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-04-11.
Costco Wholesale Corporation · Consumer Defensive
$1,002.88
-35.4% upside to fair value
Grade C
High Quality
VS
Exxon Mobil Corporation · Energy
$152.30
-33.0% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade C+
QuantHub Verdict
XOM has more upside to fair value
(-33.0%).
XOM trades at a lower forward P/E
(17.5x).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
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Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
COST |
XOM |
| Current Price |
$1,002.88 |
$152.30 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$648.03 |
$102.00 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
-35.4%
|
-33.0%
|
| Market Cap |
$444.9B |
$634.6B |
| Forward P/E |
52.1x
|
17.5x
|
| EV / EBITDA |
31.0x
|
9.8x
|
| Price / Sales |
1.6x
|
2.0x
|
| Price / FCF |
49.0x
|
26.9x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+3.4%
|
-4.5%
|
| Gross Margin |
12.9%
|
21.7%
|
| Operating Margin |
3.8%
|
10.5%
|
| Return on Equity |
28.8%
|
11.1%
|
| Dividend Yield |
0% |
2.65% |
| FCF Yield |
2.04%
|
3.72%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Strong Buy
|
Buy
|
Investment Thesis
Costco Wholesale Corporation operates a global membership-based warehouse club model with over 900 warehouses across 14 countries, generating $254 billion in fiscal 2024 revenue. The company benefits from a durable competitive moat driven by scale advantages, a loyal membership base with high renewal rates, and superior employee retention through better wages and benefits. Despite steady revenue …
Exxon Mobil is a world-class integrated energy supermajor with unmatched Permian Basin scale following the Pioneer Natural Resources acquisition, a high-margin Guyana growth engine, and disciplined capital allocation. However, the stock remains significantly overvalued relative to its own 5-year history on every key metric. At $152, XOM trades at roughly 22x trailing earnings, 1.96x sales, and 27…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
COST |
XOM |
| Zone Low |
$486.02 |
$77.00 |
| Zone High |
$550.83 |
$92.00 |
| In Buy Zone? |
No
|
No
|