COST vs UPS: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of Costco Wholesale Corporation and United Parcel Service, Inc. — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-09-25.
Costco Wholesale Corporation · Consumer Defensive
$896.48
+24.7% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade B
High Quality
VS
United Parcel Service, Inc. · Industrials
$99.02
+21.1% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade B
QuantHub Verdict
COST has more upside to fair value
(+24.7%).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
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Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
COST |
UPS |
| Current Price |
$896.48 |
$99.02 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$1,117.50 |
$119.92 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
+24.7%
|
+21.1%
|
| Market Cap |
$397.6B |
$84.1B |
| Forward P/E |
—
|
—
|
| EV / EBITDA |
32.7x
|
10.2x
|
| Price / Sales |
1.3x
|
0.9x
|
| Price / FCF |
42.4x
|
15.3x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+11.1%
|
+7.6%
|
| Gross Margin |
17.5%
|
16.6%
|
| Operating Margin |
3.9%
|
7.3%
|
| Return on Equity |
28.0%
|
29.1%
|
| Dividend Yield |
0.62% |
6.62% |
| FCF Yield |
2.36%
|
6.52%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Strong Buy
|
Hold
|
Investment Thesis
Costco Wholesale Corporation operates a global network of membership-based warehouse clubs, selling branded and private-label merchandise across the United States, Canada, Mexico, Japan, the United Kingdom, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, Spain, France, Iceland, and China, supplemented by pharmacies, optical centers, food courts, hearing aid centers, tire installation, 636 gas stations, and e-com…
United Parcel Service is the world's largest integrated package delivery and logistics network, operating U.S. Domestic Package and International Package segments with roughly 460,000 employees and a 119-year operating history. The business quality is medium: the global air-and-ground network, brand, and scale are genuine assets, but the company is exposed to commoditized freight, Amazon volume c…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
COST |
UPS |
| Zone Low |
$838.12 |
$89.94 |
| Zone High |
$949.88 |
$101.93 |
| In Buy Zone? |
Yes
|
Yes
|