COST vs UPS: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of Costco Wholesale Corporation and United Parcel Service, Inc. — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-04-20.
Costco Wholesale Corporation · Consumer Defensive
$999.89
-20.7% upside to fair value
Grade D
High Quality
VS
United Parcel Service, Inc. · Industrials
$101.69
+21.2% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade B-
QuantHub Verdict
UPS has more upside to fair value
(+21.2%).
UPS trades at a lower forward P/E
(15.1x).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
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Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
COST |
UPS |
| Current Price |
$999.89 |
$101.69 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$793.02 |
$123.28 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
-20.7%
|
+21.2%
|
| Market Cap |
$443.6B |
$86.4B |
| Forward P/E |
51.9x
|
15.1x
|
| EV / EBITDA |
30.9x
|
9.1x
|
| Price / Sales |
1.6x
|
0.9x
|
| Price / FCF |
48.8x
|
17.7x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+9.2%
|
-2.5%
|
| Gross Margin |
12.9%
|
18.5%
|
| Operating Margin |
3.8%
|
9.56%
|
| Return on Equity |
28.8%
|
34.3%
|
| Dividend Yield |
0% |
6.41% |
| FCF Yield |
2.05%
|
5.66%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Buy
|
Hold
|
Investment Thesis
Costco Wholesale Corporation operates a global membership-based warehouse club model that leverages scale, low costs, and superior employee retention to deliver consistent revenue and earnings growth. The company reported $269.9 billion in net sales for fiscal 2025 with an 8% year-over-year increase, driven by strong segments in Foods and Sundries and membership fees exceeding $5.65 billion in th…
UPS is the world's largest integrated logistics network with 241,250 employees, operations in 200-plus countries, and 20.8 million packages per day, now in the decisive phase of its most consequential restructuring in 118 years. By deliberately cutting Amazon volume by more than 50 percent (Amazon was 10.6 percent of 2025 revenue), closing 22 to 24 facilities, and eliminating 30,000 positions, ma…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
COST |
UPS |
| Zone Low |
$594.76 |
$92.46 |
| Zone High |
$674.07 |
$104.79 |
| In Buy Zone? |
No
|
Yes
|