COST vs UPS: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of Costco Wholesale Corporation and United Parcel Service, Inc. — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-07-08.
Costco Wholesale Corporation · Consumer Defensive
$947.50
-1.4% upside to fair value
Grade C
High Quality
VS
United Parcel Service, Inc. · Industrials
$105.00
+12.9% upside to fair value
Grade B
QuantHub Verdict
UPS has more upside to fair value
(+12.9%).
UPS trades at a lower forward P/E
(17.0x).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
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Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
COST |
UPS |
| Current Price |
$947.50 |
$105.00 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$933.84 |
$118.53 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
-1.4%
|
+12.9%
|
| Market Cap |
$420.2B |
$89.2B |
| Forward P/E |
47.6x
|
17.0x
|
| EV / EBITDA |
28.3x
|
9.6x
|
| Price / Sales |
1.4x
|
1.0x
|
| Price / FCF |
47.7x
|
19.8x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+11.6%
|
-1.6%
|
| Gross Margin |
12.9%
|
17.8%
|
| Operating Margin |
3.8%
|
8.5%
|
| Return on Equity |
28.3%
|
33.0%
|
| Dividend Yield |
0% |
0% |
| FCF Yield |
2.1%
|
5.06%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Buy
|
Buy
|
Investment Thesis
Costco Wholesale Corporation operates as a membership-only warehouse club offering a wide range of merchandise at low prices. The company exhibits high business quality with a durable competitive moat driven by cost advantages, strong brand loyalty, and efficient operations, reflected in a robust ROE of 28.3% and solid revenue growth of 11.6% in the most recent quarter. Despite these strengths, t…
United Parcel Service, Inc. operates as a global integrated freight and logistics company with a strong presence in U.S. domestic package delivery, international package services, and supply chain solutions. The company benefits from a durable competitive moat supported by its extensive network capabilities, premium service positioning, and strategic focus on higher-margin segments such as health…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
COST |
UPS |
| Zone Low |
$700.38 |
$88.90 |
| Zone High |
$793.76 |
$100.75 |
| In Buy Zone? |
No
|
No
|