COST vs MCD: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of Costco Wholesale Corporation and McDonald's Corporation — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-04-11.
Costco Wholesale Corporation · Consumer Defensive
$1,002.88
-35.4% upside to fair value
Grade C
High Quality
VS
McDonald's Corporation · Consumer Cyclical
$305.68
+4.7% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade B
QuantHub Verdict
MCD has more upside to fair value
(+4.7%).
MCD trades at a lower forward P/E
(24.5x).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
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Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
COST |
MCD |
| Current Price |
$1,002.88 |
$305.68 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$648.03 |
$320.00 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
-35.4%
|
+4.7%
|
| Market Cap |
$444.9B |
$218.1B |
| Forward P/E |
52.1x
|
24.5x
|
| EV / EBITDA |
31.0x
|
18.6x
|
| Price / Sales |
1.6x
|
8.1x
|
| Price / FCF |
49.0x
|
30.3x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+3.4%
|
+3.7%
|
| Gross Margin |
12.9%
|
57.4%
|
| Operating Margin |
3.8%
|
46.1%
|
| Return on Equity |
28.8%
|
—
|
| Dividend Yield |
0% |
2.4% |
| FCF Yield |
2.04%
|
3.3%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Strong Buy
|
Buy
|
Investment Thesis
Costco Wholesale Corporation operates a global membership-based warehouse club model with over 900 warehouses across 14 countries, generating $254 billion in fiscal 2024 revenue. The company benefits from a durable competitive moat driven by scale advantages, a loyal membership base with high renewal rates, and superior employee retention through better wages and benefits. Despite steady revenue …
McDonald's operates the world's largest quick-service restaurant franchise with over 40,000 locations across 100+ countries, generating $26.9B in FY2025 revenue with roughly 60% from franchised operations. The asset-light franchise model produces 46% operating margins and $7.2B in annual free cash flow. Revenue growth reaccelerated modestly to 3.7% in FY2025 from 1.7% in FY2024, driven by the Int…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
COST |
MCD |
| Zone Low |
$486.02 |
$240.00 |
| Zone High |
$550.83 |
$272.00 |
| In Buy Zone? |
No
|
No
|