COST vs LLY: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of Costco Wholesale Corporation and Eli Lilly and Company — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-04-11.
Costco Wholesale Corporation · Consumer Defensive
$1,002.88
-35.4% upside to fair value
Grade C
High Quality
VS
Eli Lilly and Company · Healthcare
$939.47
+71.1% upside to fair value
High Conviction
Grade A
QuantHub Verdict
LLY has more upside to fair value
(+71.1%).
LLY trades at a lower forward P/E
(27.4x).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
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Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
COST |
LLY |
| Current Price |
$1,002.88 |
$939.47 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$648.03 |
$1,607.00 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
-35.4%
|
+71.1%
|
| Market Cap |
$444.9B |
$887.6B |
| Forward P/E |
52.1x
|
27.4x
|
| EV / EBITDA |
31.0x
|
35.8x
|
| Price / Sales |
1.6x
|
14.8x
|
| Price / FCF |
49.0x
|
107.6x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+3.4%
|
+44.7%
|
| Gross Margin |
12.9%
|
83.8%
|
| Operating Margin |
3.8%
|
45.6%
|
| Return on Equity |
28.8%
|
77.8%
|
| Dividend Yield |
0% |
0.56% |
| FCF Yield |
2.04%
|
0.93%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Strong Buy
|
Strong Buy
|
Investment Thesis
Costco Wholesale Corporation operates a global membership-based warehouse club model with over 900 warehouses across 14 countries, generating $254 billion in fiscal 2024 revenue. The company benefits from a durable competitive moat driven by scale advantages, a loyal membership base with high renewal rates, and superior employee retention through better wages and benefits. Despite steady revenue …
Eli Lilly remains the dominant GLP-1 franchise holder with Mounjaro and Zepbound generating $36.5B combined in 2025 on 45% total revenue growth to $65.2B. The company guided $80-83B for 2026, well above prior Street consensus, and launched Foundayo (oral GLP-1, FDA approved April 2026) with $1.5B pre-built inventory. At $939 the stock trades at 14.8x P/S, right at its 5-year median, and 27.4x for…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
COST |
LLY |
| Zone Low |
$486.02 |
$1,205.00 |
| Zone High |
$550.83 |
$1,366.00 |
| In Buy Zone? |
No
|
Yes
|