COP vs XOM: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil Corporation — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-09-22.
ConocoPhillips · Energy
$127.53
+32.1% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade B
VS
Exxon Mobil Corporation · Energy
$163.18
+10.3% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade B
High Quality
QuantHub Verdict
COP has more upside to fair value
(+32.1%).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
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Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
COP |
XOM |
| Current Price |
$127.53 |
$163.18 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$168.50 |
$179.98 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
+32.1%
|
+10.3%
|
| Market Cap |
$155.4B |
$676.3B |
| Forward P/E |
—
|
—
|
| EV / EBITDA |
6.2x
|
9.9x
|
| Price / Sales |
2.5x
|
1.9x
|
| Price / FCF |
7.9x
|
22.3x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+36.8%
|
+44.1%
|
| Gross Margin |
27.7%
|
25.1%
|
| Operating Margin |
21.9%
|
10.7%
|
| Return on Equity |
14.3%
|
12.7%
|
| Dividend Yield |
2.63% |
2.52% |
| FCF Yield |
12.66%
|
4.49%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Strong Buy
|
Hold
|
Investment Thesis
ConocoPhillips is a global exploration and production company with a portfolio spanning unconventional North American shale, conventional international assets, LNG ventures, and Canadian oil sands, run by a new leadership team after Andy O'Brien became CEO on September 1, 2026. The business quality is medium: it generates substantial cash, with $16.15 in free cash flow per share and a 14.3% retur…
Exxon Mobil is the largest integrated oil and gas major in the United States, operating across Upstream exploration and production, Downstream refining and fuels marketing, and Chemical manufacturing, with roughly 57,900 employees and a portfolio that spans conventional crude and natural gas, LNG, petrochemicals, and early-stage carbon capture, hydrogen, and biofuels ventures. The business qualit…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
COP |
XOM |
| Zone Low |
$126.38 |
$134.98 |
| Zone High |
$143.22 |
$152.98 |
| In Buy Zone? |
Yes
|
No
|