COP vs XOM: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil Corporation — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-07-08.
ConocoPhillips · Energy
$108.44
-21.6% upside to fair value
Grade D
VS
Exxon Mobil Corporation · Energy
$137.81
-45.0% upside to fair value
Grade C
QuantHub Verdict
COP has more upside to fair value
(-21.6%).
COP trades at a lower forward P/E
(18.4x).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
See all research →
Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
COP |
XOM |
| Current Price |
$108.44 |
$137.81 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$85.04 |
$75.80 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
-21.6%
|
-45.0%
|
| Market Cap |
$132.1B |
$571.2B |
| Forward P/E |
18.4x
|
22.8x
|
| EV / EBITDA |
6.1x
|
10.1x
|
| Price / Sales |
2.3x
|
1.8x
|
| Price / FCF |
8.6x
|
30.4x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
-2.5%
|
+2.6%
|
| Gross Margin |
29.2%
|
25.5%
|
| Operating Margin |
18.3%
|
9.0%
|
| Return on Equity |
11.3%
|
9.8%
|
| Dividend Yield |
0% |
0% |
| FCF Yield |
11.64%
|
3.29%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Strong Buy
|
Buy
|
Investment Thesis
ConocoPhillips is a major player in the Energy sector focused on Oil & Gas Exploration & Production. The company demonstrates medium business quality with a stable competitive position but faces earnings pressure as reflected in a 23.4% decline in earnings and a 2.5% decline in revenue in the most recent quarter year-over-year. Despite a solid ROE of 11.3% and attractive margins (gross margin 29.…
Exxon Mobil Corporation is a leading integrated oil and gas company with a durable competitive moat based on its scale, integration, advantaged long-life resources, proprietary technology, and irreplaceable infrastructure. The company is led by a long-tenured management team with a strong capital allocation track record focused on dividends and buybacks. Despite these strengths, Exxon is currentl…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
COP |
XOM |
| Zone Low |
$63.78 |
$56.85 |
| Zone High |
$72.28 |
$64.43 |
| In Buy Zone? |
No
|
No
|