COP vs XOM: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil Corporation — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-05-01.
ConocoPhillips · Energy
$125.78
-2.1% upside to fair value
Grade C
VS
Exxon Mobil Corporation · Energy
$154.46
-40.5% upside to fair value
Grade C
QuantHub Verdict
COP has more upside to fair value
(-2.1%).
COP trades at a lower forward P/E
(21.0x).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
See all research →
Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
COP |
XOM |
| Current Price |
$125.78 |
$154.46 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$123.15 |
$91.87 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
-2.1%
|
-40.5%
|
| Market Cap |
$153.3B |
$642.0B |
| Forward P/E |
21.0x
|
23.2x
|
| EV / EBITDA |
7.5x
|
10.3x
|
| Price / Sales |
2.6x
|
2.0x
|
| Price / FCF |
8.4x
|
27.2x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
-2.5%
|
-1.3%
|
| Gross Margin |
33.1%
|
21.7%
|
| Operating Margin |
25.4%
|
10.5%
|
| Return on Equity |
11.3%
|
11.0%
|
| Dividend Yield |
0% |
0% |
| FCF Yield |
11.96%
|
3.68%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Strong Buy
|
Buy
|
Investment Thesis
ConocoPhillips is a leading independent oil and gas exploration and production company with a strong focus on low-cost shale assets and sustainability initiatives. The company benefits from a durable competitive position due to its cost advantage and early ESG leadership, but faces near-term earnings pressure as revenue declined 2.5% and earnings fell 23.4% in the most recent quarter year-over-ye…
Exxon Mobil Corporation operates as a global integrated oil and gas company with significant operations in upstream, energy products, chemical products, and specialty products segments. The company benefits from a highly experienced management team with decades of internal tenure, led by CEO Darren Woods. Despite strong cash flow generation and operational scale, Exxon is currently overvalued, tr…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
COP |
XOM |
| Zone Low |
$92.36 |
$68.90 |
| Zone High |
$104.68 |
$78.09 |
| In Buy Zone? |
No
|
No
|