COP vs XOM: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil Corporation — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-04-11.
ConocoPhillips · Energy
$122.55
-21.4% upside to fair value
Grade D
VS
Exxon Mobil Corporation · Energy
$152.30
-33.0% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade C+
QuantHub Verdict
COP has more upside to fair value
(-21.4%).
XOM trades at a lower forward P/E
(17.5x).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
See all research →
Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
COP |
XOM |
| Current Price |
$122.55 |
$152.30 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$96.36 |
$102.00 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
-21.4%
|
-33.0%
|
| Market Cap |
$149.8B |
$634.6B |
| Forward P/E |
19.3x
|
17.5x
|
| EV / EBITDA |
5.8x
|
9.8x
|
| Price / Sales |
2.5x
|
2.0x
|
| Price / FCF |
8.9x
|
26.9x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+7.5%
|
-4.5%
|
| Gross Margin |
24.6%
|
21.7%
|
| Operating Margin |
19.6%
|
10.5%
|
| Return on Equity |
12.39%
|
11.1%
|
| Dividend Yield |
3.41% |
2.65% |
| FCF Yield |
10.9%
|
3.72%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Buy
|
Buy
|
Investment Thesis
ConocoPhillips is the largest U.S. independent exploration and production company, operating approximately 2.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day across its Lower 48, Alaska, Canada, and international segments. The company completed its transformative $22.5 billion Marathon Oil acquisition in late 2024 and is on track for $2 billion in cost synergies by the end of 2026. Full-year 2025 reve…
Exxon Mobil is a world-class integrated energy supermajor with unmatched Permian Basin scale following the Pioneer Natural Resources acquisition, a high-margin Guyana growth engine, and disciplined capital allocation. However, the stock remains significantly overvalued relative to its own 5-year history on every key metric. At $152, XOM trades at roughly 22x trailing earnings, 1.96x sales, and 27…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
COP |
XOM |
| Zone Low |
$72.27 |
$77.00 |
| Zone High |
$81.91 |
$92.00 |
| In Buy Zone? |
No
|
No
|