COP vs VST: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of ConocoPhillips and Vistra Corp. — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-09-22.
ConocoPhillips · Energy
$127.53
+32.1% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade B
VS
Vistra Corp. · Utilities
$140.67
-23.0% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade C
QuantHub Verdict
COP has more upside to fair value
(+32.1%).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
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Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
COP |
VST |
| Current Price |
$127.53 |
$140.67 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$168.50 |
$108.27 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
+32.1%
|
-23.0%
|
| Market Cap |
$155.4B |
$47.4B |
| Forward P/E |
—
|
—
|
| EV / EBITDA |
6.2x
|
10.3x
|
| Price / Sales |
2.5x
|
3.0x
|
| Price / FCF |
7.9x
|
34.7x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+36.8%
|
-5.5%
|
| Gross Margin |
27.7%
|
13.0%
|
| Operating Margin |
21.9%
|
2.3%
|
| Return on Equity |
14.3%
|
41.5%
|
| Dividend Yield |
2.63% |
0.65% |
| FCF Yield |
12.66%
|
2.88%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Strong Buy
|
Strong Buy
|
Investment Thesis
ConocoPhillips is a global exploration and production company with a portfolio spanning unconventional North American shale, conventional international assets, LNG ventures, and Canadian oil sands, run by a new leadership team after Andy O'Brien became CEO on September 1, 2026. The business quality is medium: it generates substantial cash, with $16.15 in free cash flow per share and a 14.3% retur…
Vistra Corp. is a vertically integrated independent power producer and retail electricity supplier operating roughly 38,700 megawatts of generation across natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery storage, serving about 4.3 million retail customers in 20 states and the District of Columbia. The business quality is mixed: the diversified PJM and ERCOT fleet plus retail load is a genuine struc…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
COP |
VST |
| Zone Low |
$126.38 |
$81.20 |
| Zone High |
$143.22 |
$92.03 |
| In Buy Zone? |
Yes
|
No
|