COP vs VST: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of ConocoPhillips and Vistra Corp. — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-08-06.
ConocoPhillips · Energy
$108.44
-21.6% upside to fair value
Grade D
VS
Vistra Corp. · Utilities
$140.58
+20.9% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade B
QuantHub Verdict
VST has more upside to fair value
(+20.9%).
VST trades at a lower forward P/E
(15.4x).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
See all research →
Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
COP |
VST |
| Current Price |
$108.44 |
$140.58 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$85.04 |
$170.00 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
-21.6%
|
+20.9%
|
| Market Cap |
$132.1B |
$47.4B |
| Forward P/E |
18.4x
|
15.4x
|
| EV / EBITDA |
6.1x
|
9.3x
|
| Price / Sales |
2.3x
|
2.9x
|
| Price / FCF |
8.6x
|
42.5x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
-2.5%
|
+20.0%
|
| Gross Margin |
29.2%
|
12.7%
|
| Operating Margin |
18.3%
|
2.1%
|
| Return on Equity |
11.3%
|
35.0%
|
| Dividend Yield |
0% |
0.65% |
| FCF Yield |
11.64%
|
2.4%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Strong Buy
|
Strong Buy
|
Investment Thesis
ConocoPhillips is a major player in the Energy sector focused on Oil & Gas Exploration & Production. The company demonstrates medium business quality with a stable competitive position but faces earnings pressure as reflected in a 23.4% decline in earnings and a 2.5% decline in revenue in the most recent quarter year-over-year. Despite a solid ROE of 11.3% and attractive margins (gross margin 29.…
Vistra is an integrated merchant power producer and retail electricity supplier with roughly 38,700 MW of generation across natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar and battery storage, plus a roughly 4.3 million customer retail book (TXU and affiliated brands) across 20 states. The 2024 Energy Harbor deal made it the second-largest nuclear operator in the US, and that nuclear and gas fleet is now centr…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
COP |
VST |
| Zone Low |
$63.78 |
$128.00 |
| Zone High |
$72.28 |
$145.00 |
| In Buy Zone? |
No
|
Yes
|