COP vs UPS: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of ConocoPhillips and United Parcel Service, Inc. — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-04-11.
ConocoPhillips · Energy
$122.55
-21.4% upside to fair value
Grade D
VS
United Parcel Service, Inc. · Industrials
$101.69
+27.8% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade B-
QuantHub Verdict
UPS has more upside to fair value
(+27.8%).
UPS trades at a lower forward P/E
(15.1x).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
See all research →
Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
COP |
UPS |
| Current Price |
$122.55 |
$101.69 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$96.36 |
$130.00 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
-21.4%
|
+27.8%
|
| Market Cap |
$149.8B |
$86.4B |
| Forward P/E |
19.3x
|
15.1x
|
| EV / EBITDA |
5.8x
|
9.1x
|
| Price / Sales |
2.5x
|
0.9x
|
| Price / FCF |
8.9x
|
17.7x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+7.5%
|
-2.5%
|
| Gross Margin |
24.6%
|
18.5%
|
| Operating Margin |
19.6%
|
9.56%
|
| Return on Equity |
12.39%
|
34.3%
|
| Dividend Yield |
3.41% |
6.41% |
| FCF Yield |
10.9%
|
5.66%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Buy
|
Hold
|
Investment Thesis
ConocoPhillips is the largest U.S. independent exploration and production company, operating approximately 2.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day across its Lower 48, Alaska, Canada, and international segments. The company completed its transformative $22.5 billion Marathon Oil acquisition in late 2024 and is on track for $2 billion in cost synergies by the end of 2026. Full-year 2025 reve…
UPS is the world's largest integrated logistics network with 241,250 employees, operations in 200-plus countries, and 20.8 million packages per day, now in the decisive phase of its most consequential restructuring in 118 years. By deliberately cutting Amazon volume by more than 50 percent (Amazon was 10.6 percent of 2025 revenue), closing 22 to 24 facilities, and eliminating 30,000 positions, ma…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
COP |
UPS |
| Zone Low |
$72.27 |
$95.00 |
| Zone High |
$81.91 |
$112.00 |
| In Buy Zone? |
No
|
Yes
|