COP vs UPS: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of ConocoPhillips and United Parcel Service, Inc. — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-09-22.
ConocoPhillips · Energy
$127.53
+32.1% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade B
VS
United Parcel Service, Inc. · Industrials
$99.02
+21.1% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade B
QuantHub Verdict
COP has more upside to fair value
(+32.1%).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
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Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
COP |
UPS |
| Current Price |
$127.53 |
$99.02 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$168.50 |
$119.92 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
+32.1%
|
+21.1%
|
| Market Cap |
$155.4B |
$84.1B |
| Forward P/E |
—
|
—
|
| EV / EBITDA |
6.2x
|
10.2x
|
| Price / Sales |
2.5x
|
0.9x
|
| Price / FCF |
7.9x
|
15.3x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+36.8%
|
+7.6%
|
| Gross Margin |
27.7%
|
16.6%
|
| Operating Margin |
21.9%
|
7.3%
|
| Return on Equity |
14.3%
|
29.1%
|
| Dividend Yield |
2.63% |
6.62% |
| FCF Yield |
12.66%
|
6.52%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Strong Buy
|
Hold
|
Investment Thesis
ConocoPhillips is a global exploration and production company with a portfolio spanning unconventional North American shale, conventional international assets, LNG ventures, and Canadian oil sands, run by a new leadership team after Andy O'Brien became CEO on September 1, 2026. The business quality is medium: it generates substantial cash, with $16.15 in free cash flow per share and a 14.3% retur…
United Parcel Service is the world's largest integrated package delivery and logistics network, operating U.S. Domestic Package and International Package segments with roughly 460,000 employees and a 119-year operating history. The business quality is medium: the global air-and-ground network, brand, and scale are genuine assets, but the company is exposed to commoditized freight, Amazon volume c…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
COP |
UPS |
| Zone Low |
$126.38 |
$89.94 |
| Zone High |
$143.22 |
$101.93 |
| In Buy Zone? |
Yes
|
Yes
|