COP vs UPS: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of ConocoPhillips and United Parcel Service, Inc. — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-07-08.
ConocoPhillips · Energy
$108.44
-21.6% upside to fair value
Grade D
VS
United Parcel Service, Inc. · Industrials
$105.00
+12.9% upside to fair value
Grade B
QuantHub Verdict
UPS has more upside to fair value
(+12.9%).
UPS trades at a lower forward P/E
(17.0x).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
See all research →
Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
COP |
UPS |
| Current Price |
$108.44 |
$105.00 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$85.04 |
$118.53 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
-21.6%
|
+12.9%
|
| Market Cap |
$132.1B |
$89.2B |
| Forward P/E |
18.4x
|
17.0x
|
| EV / EBITDA |
6.1x
|
9.6x
|
| Price / Sales |
2.3x
|
1.0x
|
| Price / FCF |
8.6x
|
19.8x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
-2.5%
|
-1.6%
|
| Gross Margin |
29.2%
|
17.8%
|
| Operating Margin |
18.3%
|
8.5%
|
| Return on Equity |
11.3%
|
33.0%
|
| Dividend Yield |
0% |
0% |
| FCF Yield |
11.64%
|
5.06%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Strong Buy
|
Buy
|
Investment Thesis
ConocoPhillips is a major player in the Energy sector focused on Oil & Gas Exploration & Production. The company demonstrates medium business quality with a stable competitive position but faces earnings pressure as reflected in a 23.4% decline in earnings and a 2.5% decline in revenue in the most recent quarter year-over-year. Despite a solid ROE of 11.3% and attractive margins (gross margin 29.…
United Parcel Service, Inc. operates as a global integrated freight and logistics company with a strong presence in U.S. domestic package delivery, international package services, and supply chain solutions. The company benefits from a durable competitive moat supported by its extensive network capabilities, premium service positioning, and strategic focus on higher-margin segments such as health…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
COP |
UPS |
| Zone Low |
$63.78 |
$88.90 |
| Zone High |
$72.28 |
$100.75 |
| In Buy Zone? |
No
|
No
|