COP vs LLY: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of ConocoPhillips and Eli Lilly and Company — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-04-11.
ConocoPhillips · Energy
$122.55
-21.4% upside to fair value
Grade D
VS
Eli Lilly and Company · Healthcare
$939.47
+71.1% upside to fair value
High Conviction
Grade A
QuantHub Verdict
LLY has more upside to fair value
(+71.1%).
COP trades at a lower forward P/E
(19.3x).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
See all research →
Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
COP |
LLY |
| Current Price |
$122.55 |
$939.47 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$96.36 |
$1,607.00 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
-21.4%
|
+71.1%
|
| Market Cap |
$149.8B |
$887.6B |
| Forward P/E |
19.3x
|
27.4x
|
| EV / EBITDA |
5.8x
|
35.8x
|
| Price / Sales |
2.5x
|
14.8x
|
| Price / FCF |
8.9x
|
107.6x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+7.5%
|
+44.7%
|
| Gross Margin |
24.6%
|
83.8%
|
| Operating Margin |
19.6%
|
45.6%
|
| Return on Equity |
12.39%
|
77.8%
|
| Dividend Yield |
3.41% |
0.56% |
| FCF Yield |
10.9%
|
0.93%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Buy
|
Strong Buy
|
Investment Thesis
ConocoPhillips is the largest U.S. independent exploration and production company, operating approximately 2.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day across its Lower 48, Alaska, Canada, and international segments. The company completed its transformative $22.5 billion Marathon Oil acquisition in late 2024 and is on track for $2 billion in cost synergies by the end of 2026. Full-year 2025 reve…
Eli Lilly remains the dominant GLP-1 franchise holder with Mounjaro and Zepbound generating $36.5B combined in 2025 on 45% total revenue growth to $65.2B. The company guided $80-83B for 2026, well above prior Street consensus, and launched Foundayo (oral GLP-1, FDA approved April 2026) with $1.5B pre-built inventory. At $939 the stock trades at 14.8x P/S, right at its 5-year median, and 27.4x for…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
COP |
LLY |
| Zone Low |
$72.27 |
$1,205.00 |
| Zone High |
$81.91 |
$1,366.00 |
| In Buy Zone? |
No
|
Yes
|