COP vs LLY: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of ConocoPhillips and Eli Lilly and Company — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-09-26.
ConocoPhillips · Energy
$127.53
+32.1% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade B
VS
Eli Lilly and Company · Healthcare
$1,183.72
+2.1% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade B
High Quality
QuantHub Verdict
COP has more upside to fair value
(+32.1%).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
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Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
COP |
LLY |
| Current Price |
$127.53 |
$1,183.72 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$168.50 |
$1,208.00 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
+32.1%
|
+2.1%
|
| Market Cap |
$155.4B |
$1,114.8B |
| Forward P/E |
—
|
—
|
| EV / EBITDA |
6.2x
|
26.8x
|
| Price / Sales |
2.5x
|
14.0x
|
| Price / FCF |
7.9x
|
52.7x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+36.8%
|
+47.7%
|
| Gross Margin |
27.7%
|
83.4%
|
| Operating Margin |
21.9%
|
49.7%
|
| Return on Equity |
14.3%
|
92.6%
|
| Dividend Yield |
2.63% |
0.57% |
| FCF Yield |
12.66%
|
1.9%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Strong Buy
|
Strong Buy
|
Investment Thesis
ConocoPhillips is a global exploration and production company with a portfolio spanning unconventional North American shale, conventional international assets, LNG ventures, and Canadian oil sands, run by a new leadership team after Andy O'Brien became CEO on September 1, 2026. The business quality is medium: it generates substantial cash, with $16.15 in free cash flow per share and a 14.3% retur…
Eli Lilly is a global pharmaceutical company whose incretin franchise, led by Mounjaro and Zepbound, has become the dominant growth engine in diabetes and obesity care. The business quality is high: TTM gross margin is 83.4%, TTM operating margin is 49.7%, TTM net margin is 33.5%, and ROE is 92.6%, while revenue grew 47.7% and earnings grew 25.3% in the most recent quarter on a year-over-year bas…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
COP |
LLY |
| Zone Low |
$126.38 |
$906.00 |
| Zone High |
$143.22 |
$1,026.80 |
| In Buy Zone? |
Yes
|
No
|