CEG vs VST: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of Constellation Energy Corporation and Vistra Corp. — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-09-22.
Constellation Energy Corporation · Utilities
$262.11
-4.2% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade C
High Quality
VS
Vistra Corp. · Utilities
$140.67
-23.0% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade C
QuantHub Verdict
CEG has more upside to fair value
(-4.2%).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
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Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
CEG |
VST |
| Current Price |
$262.11 |
$140.67 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$250.98 |
$108.27 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
-4.2%
|
-23.0%
|
| Market Cap |
$94.1B |
$47.4B |
| Forward P/E |
—
|
—
|
| EV / EBITDA |
13.9x
|
10.3x
|
| Price / Sales |
3.0x
|
3.0x
|
| Price / FCF |
300.3x
|
34.7x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+23.0%
|
-5.5%
|
| Gross Margin |
94.9%
|
13.0%
|
| Operating Margin |
14.7%
|
2.3%
|
| Return on Equity |
14.7%
|
41.5%
|
| Dividend Yield |
0.64% |
0.65% |
| FCF Yield |
0.33%
|
2.88%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Strong Buy
|
Strong Buy
|
Investment Thesis
Constellation Energy is the largest U.S. producer of carbon-free electricity, operating roughly 32,400 megawatts of nuclear, gas, wind, solar, and hydro generation across the Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, New York, ERCOT, and other power markets, with a 94.9% TTM gross margin that reflects the low marginal cost of nuclear fuel and the scarcity value of firm clean power. The business quality is genuinely…
Vistra Corp. is a vertically integrated independent power producer and retail electricity supplier operating roughly 38,700 megawatts of generation across natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery storage, serving about 4.3 million retail customers in 20 states and the District of Columbia. The business quality is mixed: the diversified PJM and ERCOT fleet plus retail load is a genuine struc…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
CEG |
VST |
| Zone Low |
$188.23 |
$81.20 |
| Zone High |
$213.33 |
$92.03 |
| In Buy Zone? |
No
|
No
|