CAT vs UPS: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of Caterpillar Inc. and United Parcel Service, Inc. — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-07-08.
Caterpillar Inc. · Industrials
$940.12
-39.4% upside to fair value
Grade C
High Quality
VS
United Parcel Service, Inc. · Industrials
$105.00
+12.9% upside to fair value
Grade B
QuantHub Verdict
UPS has more upside to fair value
(+12.9%).
UPS trades at a lower forward P/E
(17.0x).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
See all research →
Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
CAT |
UPS |
| Current Price |
$940.12 |
$105.00 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$569.47 |
$118.53 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
-39.4%
|
+12.9%
|
| Market Cap |
$433.1B |
$89.2B |
| Forward P/E |
46.6x
|
17.0x
|
| EV / EBITDA |
29.7x
|
9.6x
|
| Price / Sales |
6.1x
|
1.0x
|
| Price / FCF |
37.8x
|
19.8x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+22.2%
|
-1.6%
|
| Gross Margin |
32.5%
|
17.8%
|
| Operating Margin |
16.6%
|
8.5%
|
| Return on Equity |
47.5%
|
33.0%
|
| Dividend Yield |
0% |
0% |
| FCF Yield |
2.64%
|
5.06%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Hold
|
Buy
|
Investment Thesis
Caterpillar Inc. is a leading global manufacturer of agricultural and construction machinery, operating within the Industrials sector. The company demonstrates high business quality with a durable competitive moat supported by strong brand recognition, cost advantages, and intangible assets. It posted robust revenue growth of 22.2% and earnings growth of 27.3% in the most recent quarter, reflecti…
United Parcel Service, Inc. operates as a global integrated freight and logistics company with a strong presence in U.S. domestic package delivery, international package services, and supply chain solutions. The company benefits from a durable competitive moat supported by its extensive network capabilities, premium service positioning, and strategic focus on higher-margin segments such as health…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
CAT |
UPS |
| Zone Low |
$427.10 |
$88.90 |
| Zone High |
$484.05 |
$100.75 |
| In Buy Zone? |
No
|
No
|