CAT vs UPS: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of Caterpillar Inc. and United Parcel Service, Inc. — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-09-21.
Caterpillar Inc. · Industrials
$808.99
-2.2% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade C
High Quality
VS
United Parcel Service, Inc. · Industrials
$99.02
+21.1% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade B
QuantHub Verdict
UPS has more upside to fair value
(+21.1%).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
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Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
CAT |
UPS |
| Current Price |
$808.99 |
$99.02 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$790.88 |
$119.92 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
-2.2%
|
+21.1%
|
| Market Cap |
$372.6B |
$84.1B |
| Forward P/E |
—
|
—
|
| EV / EBITDA |
23.6x
|
10.2x
|
| Price / Sales |
5.0x
|
0.9x
|
| Price / FCF |
41.4x
|
15.3x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+24.0%
|
+7.6%
|
| Gross Margin |
33.9%
|
16.6%
|
| Operating Margin |
17.5%
|
7.3%
|
| Return on Equity |
54.1%
|
29.1%
|
| Dividend Yield |
0.76% |
6.62% |
| FCF Yield |
2.41%
|
6.52%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Buy
|
Hold
|
Investment Thesis
Caterpillar is the world's premier manufacturer of heavy construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas power units, and industrial gas turbines, organized across Construction Industries, Resource Industries, Energy & Transportation, and Financial Products, with 118,000 employees and a century-old brand. Business quality is high: return on equity of 54.1%, TTM operating margin of 17.5%…
United Parcel Service is the world's largest integrated package delivery and logistics network, operating U.S. Domestic Package and International Package segments with roughly 460,000 employees and a 119-year operating history. The business quality is medium: the global air-and-ground network, brand, and scale are genuine assets, but the company is exposed to commoditized freight, Amazon volume c…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
CAT |
UPS |
| Zone Low |
$593.16 |
$89.94 |
| Zone High |
$672.25 |
$101.93 |
| In Buy Zone? |
No
|
Yes
|