CAT vs UPS: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of Caterpillar Inc. and United Parcel Service, Inc. — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-04-11.
Caterpillar Inc. · Industrials
$792.65
-8.8% upside to fair value
Grade D
VS
United Parcel Service, Inc. · Industrials
$101.69
+27.8% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade B-
QuantHub Verdict
UPS has more upside to fair value
(+27.8%).
UPS trades at a lower forward P/E
(15.1x).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
See all research →
Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
CAT |
UPS |
| Current Price |
$792.65 |
$101.69 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$723.13 |
$130.00 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
-8.8%
|
+27.8%
|
| Market Cap |
$370.9B |
$86.4B |
| Forward P/E |
41.7x
|
15.1x
|
| EV / EBITDA |
27.2x
|
9.1x
|
| Price / Sales |
5.5x
|
0.9x
|
| Price / FCF |
36.1x
|
17.7x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+8.5%
|
-2.5%
|
| Gross Margin |
32.3%
|
18.5%
|
| Operating Margin |
16.6%
|
9.56%
|
| Return on Equity |
45.1%
|
34.3%
|
| Dividend Yield |
0% |
6.41% |
| FCF Yield |
2.77%
|
5.66%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Buy
|
Hold
|
Investment Thesis
Caterpillar Inc. is the world's leading manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, engines, and industrial machinery, with a strong global footprint and a record $67.6 billion in revenues for 2025. The company benefits from a durable competitive position supported by a broad product portfolio and a large installed base, but faces margin pressure from tariffs and cost inflation. Despite so…
UPS is the world's largest integrated logistics network with 241,250 employees, operations in 200-plus countries, and 20.8 million packages per day, now in the decisive phase of its most consequential restructuring in 118 years. By deliberately cutting Amazon volume by more than 50 percent (Amazon was 10.6 percent of 2025 revenue), closing 22 to 24 facilities, and eliminating 30,000 positions, ma…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
CAT |
UPS |
| Zone Low |
$542.35 |
$95.00 |
| Zone High |
$614.66 |
$112.00 |
| In Buy Zone? |
No
|
Yes
|