CAT vs COP: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of Caterpillar Inc. and ConocoPhillips — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-04-11.
Caterpillar Inc. · Industrials
$792.65
-8.8% upside to fair value
Grade D
VS
ConocoPhillips · Energy
$122.55
-21.4% upside to fair value
Grade D
QuantHub Verdict
CAT has more upside to fair value
(-8.8%).
COP trades at a lower forward P/E
(19.3x).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
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Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
CAT |
COP |
| Current Price |
$792.65 |
$122.55 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$723.13 |
$96.36 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
-8.8%
|
-21.4%
|
| Market Cap |
$370.9B |
$149.8B |
| Forward P/E |
41.7x
|
19.3x
|
| EV / EBITDA |
27.2x
|
5.8x
|
| Price / Sales |
5.5x
|
2.5x
|
| Price / FCF |
36.1x
|
8.9x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+8.5%
|
+7.5%
|
| Gross Margin |
32.3%
|
24.6%
|
| Operating Margin |
16.6%
|
19.6%
|
| Return on Equity |
45.1%
|
12.39%
|
| Dividend Yield |
0% |
3.41% |
| FCF Yield |
2.77%
|
10.9%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Buy
|
Buy
|
Investment Thesis
Caterpillar Inc. is the world's leading manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, engines, and industrial machinery, with a strong global footprint and a record $67.6 billion in revenues for 2025. The company benefits from a durable competitive position supported by a broad product portfolio and a large installed base, but faces margin pressure from tariffs and cost inflation. Despite so…
ConocoPhillips is the largest U.S. independent exploration and production company, operating approximately 2.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day across its Lower 48, Alaska, Canada, and international segments. The company completed its transformative $22.5 billion Marathon Oil acquisition in late 2024 and is on track for $2 billion in cost synergies by the end of 2026. Full-year 2025 reve…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
CAT |
COP |
| Zone Low |
$542.35 |
$72.27 |
| Zone High |
$614.66 |
$81.91 |
| In Buy Zone? |
No
|
No
|