CAT vs COP: Which Is the Better Buy?
Side-by-side comparison of Caterpillar Inc. and ConocoPhillips — fair value, conviction, valuation metrics, and QuantHub research signals.
Updated 2026-09-22.
Caterpillar Inc. · Industrials
$808.99
-2.2% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade C
High Quality
VS
ConocoPhillips · Energy
$127.53
+32.1% upside to fair value
Med Conviction
Grade B
QuantHub Verdict
COP has more upside to fair value
(+32.1%).
These are model outputs — not personalized investment advice.
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Valuation & Fundamentals
| Metric |
CAT |
COP |
| Current Price |
$808.99 |
$127.53 |
| Fair Value Estimate |
$790.88 |
$168.50 |
| Upside to Fair Value |
-2.2%
|
+32.1%
|
| Market Cap |
$372.6B |
$155.4B |
| Forward P/E |
—
|
—
|
| EV / EBITDA |
23.6x
|
6.2x
|
| Price / Sales |
5.0x
|
2.5x
|
| Price / FCF |
41.4x
|
7.9x
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
+24.0%
|
+36.8%
|
| Gross Margin |
33.9%
|
27.7%
|
| Operating Margin |
17.5%
|
21.9%
|
| Return on Equity |
54.1%
|
14.3%
|
| Dividend Yield |
0.76% |
2.63% |
| FCF Yield |
2.41%
|
12.66%
|
| Analyst Consensus |
Buy
|
Strong Buy
|
Investment Thesis
Caterpillar is the world's premier manufacturer of heavy construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas power units, and industrial gas turbines, organized across Construction Industries, Resource Industries, Energy & Transportation, and Financial Products, with 118,000 employees and a century-old brand. Business quality is high: return on equity of 54.1%, TTM operating margin of 17.5%…
ConocoPhillips is a global exploration and production company with a portfolio spanning unconventional North American shale, conventional international assets, LNG ventures, and Canadian oil sands, run by a new leadership team after Andy O'Brien became CEO on September 1, 2026. The business quality is medium: it generates substantial cash, with $16.15 in free cash flow per share and a 14.3% retur…
Accumulation Zones
| Metric |
CAT |
COP |
| Zone Low |
$593.16 |
$126.38 |
| Zone High |
$672.25 |
$143.22 |
| In Buy Zone? |
No
|
Yes
|